The Energy Supplier’s Guide to Disruption in 2025

The energy market is entering a new era, one defined less by momentum and more by disruption.

If you’re a retail energy supplier, you’ve likely spent the last few years scaling up renewable offerings, optimizing RECs, and forecasting demand using familiar tools. But 2025 has rewritten the playbook.

A wave of federal policy changes is reshaping the energy landscape, putting clean energy on the back foot and opening the door for fossil fuel expansion. Meanwhile, customer expectations are rising, and regulatory obligations haven’t eased. The challenge? Suppliers must meet increasingly complex requirements in a market full of contradictions.

This guide breaks down the major shifts you need to know and lays out a strategic path forward.

What’s Changing in the Energy Industry (and Why It Matters)

Federal support for renewables is slowing dramatically. Executive orders in early 2025 rolled back key programs that once underpinned the clean energy boom:

• Federal investments in new solar and wind projects have been paused
  
  
• Leasing of federal lands for renewable development has been restricted
  
  
• Tariffs have made imported solar panels—roughly 75% of the market—far more expensive

As a result, the first quarter of 2025 saw over $8 billion in clean energy projects canceled, downsized, or abandoned.

At the same time, the federal government has lifted restrictions on oil, gas, and mineral production, particularly in Alaska. Natural gas development is surging, with pipeline approvals now facing fewer environmental hurdles. The energy mix is shifting in real time.

For retail energy suppliers, this policy pivot creates pressure on multiple fronts:

• REC supply is tightening while demand (driven by RPS obligations) holds steady
  
  
• Price volatility is increasing, particularly in the natural gas market
  
  
• Compliance complexity is rising, with fewer environmental reviews creating risk
  
  
• Customers are more cost-conscious, expecting transparency and tools to manage usage
  
  

Strategy 1: Lock In RECs Now Before Prices Spike

With fewer renewable projects moving forward, the supply of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) is shrinking, but state-mandated Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) still require suppliers to maintain specific levels of clean energy sourcing. That tension between declining supply and steady demand is already affecting prices.

• REC prices are projected to rise by late 2025 or early 2026
  
  
• States like Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois allow RECs to be banked for months or even years before retirement
  
  
• Early procurement enables cost smoothing, minimizes market exposure, and protects customer pricing

Action Plan

1. Start accumulating RECs now while the supply is more accessible.
   
   
2. Bank RECs in states that allow it, using compliance timelines to your advantage.
   
   
3. Budget proactively for gradual purchases instead of lump-sum buys.
   
   
4. Monitor markets more closely to identify dips and seize purchasing windows.
   
   

You don’t need a brand-new REC platform, just a centralized tracking system that provides portfolio visibility, contract obligations, and real-time market trends. Even basic enhancements can improve strategic timing and reduce risk.

Strategy 2: Rely on Predictive Analytics, Not Historical Guesswork

Natural gas is once again central to U.S. energy production, but the path forward is anything but stable. Between regulatory uncertainty, climate-related demand swings, and geopolitical pressures, suppliers are facing unpredictable pricing environments.

What’s Driving Volatility

• New drilling is ramping up, particularly in Alaska and other previously restricted zones
  
  
• Pipeline approvals are accelerating, without the same level of environmental review
  
  
• Weather patterns are becoming more extreme and harder to model
  
  
• Global supply chains remain fragile in the wake of tariffs and trade realignments

Why Historical Data Isn’t Enough

Previous consumption trends can’t account for these new dynamics. Instead, suppliers need access to:

• Real-time demand data
  
  
• Weather and seasonal load forecasting
  
  
• Regulatory news tracking
  
  
• Market movement alerts
  
  

Heat waves in the Southwest are the perfect example of this. Forecasting peak demand can help suppliers hedge early and avoid buying during price surges.

Action Plan

1. Invest in platforms that combine load analysis, weather forecasting, and market data.
   
   
2. Use predictive analytics to time purchasing decisions and optimize portfolio hedging.
   
   
3. Reassess your fuel mix. Natural gas volatility may call for a more diverse or regionally adjusted supply strategy.

Strategy 3: Offset Rising Costs with Long-Term Contracts and Smarter Tech

With compliance costs rising and customers growing wary of rate increases, suppliers need to secure both customer loyalty and revenue predictability.

Two paths stand out: customer-facing technology and large-scale power purchase agreements (PPAs).

1. Empower Customers with Real-Time Visibility

Smart meters and mobile apps are no longer just a “nice to have” but are expected. By giving customers real-time insight into energy usage and time-of-use pricing, suppliers help users:

• Reduce bills by adjusting peak usage
  
  
• Understand pricing shifts tied to compliance costs (like rising REC prices)
  
  
• Build trust through transparency

Tools that offer long-term value insulate your customer base from churn, even when rates fluctuate.

2. Pursue PPAs with High-Usage Clients

Some of the biggest opportunities for long-term stability come from securing PPAs with large users like data centers. With the rise of AI and cloud computing, tech companies like Microsoft and Meta are investing billions into 24/7 infrastructure.

• These customers demand consistent, high-load usage
  
  
• PPAs provide fixed or indexed pricing over multiple years
  
  
• Suppliers benefit from predictable load for hedging and revenue planning

One PPA with a major data center could secure years of reliable income, even as retail pricing or policy conditions fluctuate.

Strategy 4: Build Long-Term Resilience, Not Short-Term Reaction

Even if political winds shift again, the damage to clean energy confidence has already been done. It could take years to:

• Restart closed coal or nuclear facilities
  
  
• Rehire or retrain energy sector workers
  
  
• Rebuild disrupted clean energy supply chains
  
  
• Reestablish investor trust in long-term renewable projects
  
  

While future incentives may return, the infrastructure won’t bounce back overnight. That’s why today’s strategies must prioritize adaptability.

Action Plan

1. Diversify your portfolio mix to hedge against fuel-specific risks.
   
   
2. Create a financial runway to absorb REC price increases.
   
   
3. Automate data tracking and forecasting to respond faster.
   
   
4. Develop customer tools that outlast policy swings.
   
   
5. Secure your base with long-term contract structures.

The suppliers who succeed in this environment will be the ones who build flexibility into every layer of their operations, from procurement to customer communication.

The Role of Tools Like Risk360

Staying on top of compliance, forecasting, and pricing shifts is a full-time job. That’s why our platform was designed to give energy suppliers a competitive edge. With built-in tools for REC tracking, demand forecasting, and market-based analytics, it helps you:

• Optimize REC procurement and avoid regulatory penalties
  
  
• Forecast and hedge based on real-time risk signals
  
  
• Build data-informed portfolios to reduce exposure and increase margin

Make This the Year You Lead, Not Just Survive

2025 may be the year energy suppliers are most tested, but also the year they stand to gain the most.

• Rising costs don’t have to kill growth.
  
  
• Volatility doesn’t have to equal vulnerability.
  
  
• Shifting policy doesn’t have to rewrite your business model if you’re prepared.

Those who plan ahead and move quickly will be better positioned to navigate risk, grow customer loyalty, and lead in an evolving market.

Ready for a Smarter Way to Manage Your REC Strategy or Market Exposure?

Our Risk360 platform offers data-driven tools and market insights built to help suppliers optimize compliance, hedge with confidence, and prepare for what’s next. Schedule a free demo today.