Smarter Export Tariffs Could Unlock a Fairer Energy Future

Elevated wholesale prices, volatile demand, and regulatory pressure around decarbonisation are forcing businesses to rethink how they generate, consume, and even trade energy. At the same time, customers, from retail giants to business parks, are becoming more energy-savvy, choosing their own renewable solutions and even selling excess power back to the grid.

For energy suppliers, this is both a threat and an opportunity. The next phase of competition won’t just be about retail tariffs but also about export tariffs and the way businesses are compensated for contributing to a fairer, more resilient grid.

The Push Toward On-Site Renewables

With technology costs falling and sustainability rising on the corporate agenda, many businesses are taking generation into their own hands.

• Walmart has converted a large portion of its 780 million square feet of rooftop space for solar power, and committed to adding 10 GW of capacity by 2030.
  
  
• In Europe, solar adoption grew 40% year-over-year in 2023, with commercial and industrial sites leading the charge.
  
  
• In the UK, solar carports alone could add 11 GW, boosting current national solar capacity by 40%.

On-site generation reduces reliance on traditional suppliers, so in order to stay relevant, suppliers must position themselves as partners who can help optimise, integrate, and monetise that generation.

Technology as the Catalyst

The decentralisation of energy wouldn’t be possible without breakthroughs in technology.

• AI and data analytics now enable businesses to forecast demand, track positions, and identify trading opportunities with precision.
  
  
• DERMs (Distributed Energy Resource Management systems) allow companies to balance resources across sites, maximising renewable use.
  
  
• Battery innovation—especially in lithium-ion—has improved storage density, enabling businesses to store more energy for later use.

These technologies level the playing field. Customers can now optimize their own energy strategies, which means suppliers must bring value-added services like forecasting, risk management, and flexible contract design.

The Growing Role of Data

Smart meter data is another cornerstone of this transformation. In the UK, the Data Communications Company (DCC), regulated by Ofgem, connects smart meters with suppliers, network operators, and service providers. This ensures accurate, transparent communication of consumption and generation.

The Meter Operator Agreement (MOP) plays a critical role here, defining responsibilities for installing and maintaining meters, while ensuring data integrity. The result?

• More precise billing
  
  
• Better energy management
  
  
• Greater trust between customer and supplier

Data is the new currency of energy. Suppliers must leverage it not just for compliance, but for creating insights-driven customer value.

Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading is the Next Frontier

Peer-to-peer (P2P) trading, where businesses and communities exchange energy directly, is emerging as a disruptor. Companies like UrbanChain are already enabling renewable generators to trade with local consumers, bypassing conventional supply chains.

This shift is particularly visible in business parks, where solar installations power tenants directly. Government studies show:

• An 80-space solar carport can save a business £28,000 annually.
  
  
• National potential for solar carports could add 11 GW of generation capacity.

If suppliers don’t adapt, P2P platforms could disintermediate them. But forward-looking suppliers can embrace these models, facilitating local trading and building trust as energy partners.

Meeting Energy-Hungry Demand

At the same time, demand is rising sharply due to the energy intensity of data centers and AI. For example:

• The Future Point Manchester project combines Europe’s largest data center with 500 MW of low-carbon power on a private network.
  
  
• Data centers could consume more than 8% of all electricity by 2030.

The challenge isn’t just supply, but matching high, variable demand with localised renewable solutions. Suppliers that can offer integrated renewable + private network models will be best positioned.

The Rise of Export Tariffs

The biggest mindset shift ahead is that customers are no longer just consumers, but contributors. Businesses will measure energy value not only by what they pay per kWh, but by what they can earn from selling back to the grid.

• Export tariffs are becoming a key bargaining chip in supplier negotiations.
  
  
• Savvy businesses are already locking in favorable tariffs to future-proof revenue.
  
  
• Over time, tariffs will grow more granular, reflecting time of day, location, and grid stress.

Suppliers who ignore export tariffs risk losing ground. Those who can offer competitive, flexible export terms alongside retail supply will win more customers and retain loyalty.

Virtual Power Plants and Flexibility Markets are What’s Next

Looking further ahead, the combination of P2P trading, batteries, and AI will enable Virtual Power Plants (VPPs)..

• VPPs can reduce grid stress, improve reliability, and create new revenue streams.
  
  
• Flexibility markets will allow customers to sell not just energy, but demand-response capabilities back to the system.

Suppliers can either become enablers of flexible markets or risk being bypassed by new entrants. The choice will determine long-term competitiveness.

Smarter, Fairer, and Supplier-Ready?

The microgrid era is here, and it’s transforming the very definition of an energy supplier. Customers now generate, store, and trade energy with unprecedented control. Export tariffs are emerging as the new focal point of competition, shifting value from pure consumption to contribution.

For suppliers, the message is clear:

• Compete on both retail and export tariffs.
  
  
• Use data and AI to deliver smarter insights.
  
  
• Facilitate P2P trading, VPPs, and flexibility markets.

Those who adapt will lead the fairer, cleaner, more resilient energy economy of tomorrow. Those who don’t may find themselves watching from the sidelines.